| Status after Sunday, March 24, Games - Revised March 30 | ||||||||||||||||
| Case number out of the possible 8 cases --> | Case 1 | Case 2 | Case 3 | Case 4 | Case 5 | Case 6 | Case 7 | Case 8 | ||||||||
| Wins Final Four (Semifinal) South vs. West game --> | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Indiana | Oklahoma | Indiana | Oklahoma | Indiana | Indiana | ||||||||
| Wins Final Four (Semifinal) East vs. Midwest game --> | Kansas | Maryland | Kansas | Kansas | Maryland | Maryland | Kansas | Maryland | ||||||||
| Wins championship --> | Kansas | Maryland | Kansas | Oklahoma | Maryland | Oklahoma | Indiana | Indiana | ||||||||
| Stan's estimated probability of this outcome actually occurring --> | 16.927% | 16.192% | 13.549% | 13.072% | 12.994% | 12.897% | 7.222% | 7.147% | ||||||||
| Number of participants finishing in 1st place in this outcome --> | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Number of participants finishing in 2nd place in this outcome --> | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Number of participants finishing in 3rd place in this outcome --> | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Participant | Actual Points Scored Through Sun., 3/24 | Picked South vs. West Winner | Picked East vs. Midwest Winner | Picked Final Game Winner | Likelihood of 1st Place Finish (Incl. Tie) | Likelihood of 2nd Place or Better (Incl. Tie) | Likelihood of 3rd Place or Better (Incl. Tie) | Tie-Break Points | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) | Actual Finish if Above Happens (Before Tie-Break) |
| Flint S | 76 | Oklahoma | Kansas | Kansas | 37.7% | 50.8% | 50.8% | 150 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| Lisa C | 76 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 20.8% | 20.8% | 37.7% | 159 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 5 |
| Nam T | 76 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 20.8% | 20.8% | 37.7% | 170 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 5 |
| Emily H | 66 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Maryland | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 165 | 24 | 1 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 14 |
| Jeff M | 69 | Oklahoma | Kansas | Oklahoma | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 140 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 29 |
| Joyice G | 69 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 13.0% | 13.0% | 20.1% | 140 | 42 | 4 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 3 |
| Alan P | 68 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Oklahoma | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 130 | 22 | 8 | 37 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 28 | 5 |
| Jon H | 64 | Indiana | Georgia | Indiana | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 222 | 55 | 45 | 28 | 48 | 23 | 43 | 5 | 1 |
| Bob B | 75 | Oklahoma | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 16.9% | 30.0% | 142 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| Jay J | 65 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 140 | 29 | 2 | 48 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 16 |
| Jim M | 65 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 145 | 29 | 2 | 48 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 16 |
| Travis O | 68 | Cincinnati | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 147 | 45 | 5 | 37 | 36 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 5 |
| Emily C | 65 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Oklahoma | 0.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 118 | 29 | 11 | 48 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 41 | 16 |
| Christian N #2 | 72 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 118 | 33 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 2 |
| Beth C | 67 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 157 | 50 | 6 | 43 | 42 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 11 |
| Matt C | 67 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 159 | 50 | 6 | 43 | 42 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 11 |
| Guy M | 62 | Oklahoma | Maryland | Oklahoma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.9% | 149 | 38 | 14 | 58 | 9 | 30 | 3 | 55 | 26 |
| Caitlin C | 69 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 142 | 42 | 15 | 35 | 33 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 3 |
| A. H | 67 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 146 | 50 | 38 | 43 | 42 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 32 |
| Amy F | 66 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 162 | 24 | 43 | 23 | 21 | 41 | 41 | 17 | 39 |
| Andy C | 56 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 145 | 24 | 61 | 23 | 48 | 61 | 61 | 45 | 61 |
| Ashley C | 55 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 159 | 71 | 65 | 71 | 70 | 65 | 65 | 70 | 65 |
| Ashley O | 62 | Oklahoma | Oregon | Oklahoma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 147 | 38 | 31 | 58 | 9 | 47 | 10 | 55 | 46 |
| Beth G | 61 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 126 | 14 | 53 | 13 | 33 | 52 | 53 | 25 | 52 |
| Bill N | 60 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 183 | 16 | 54 | 15 | 36 | 54 | 54 | 28 | 54 |
| Bruce Y | 56 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 164 | 55 | 61 | 52 | 48 | 61 | 61 | 45 | 61 |
| Carter C | 62 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 118 | 38 | 50 | 34 | 30 | 47 | 49 | 23 | 46 |
| Chad C | 71 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 150 | 7 | 27 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
| Chris C | 48 | Cincinnati | Mississippi St | Mississippi St | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 128 | 81 | 79 | 81 | 81 | 79 | 79 | 81 | 79 |
| Chris W | 59 | Arizona | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 145 | 20 | 58 | 19 | 42 | 58 | 58 | 35 | 58 |
| Christian N #1 | 41 | Arizona | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 134 | 64 | 81 | 64 | 77 | 81 | 81 | 77 | 81 |
| Dave F | 57 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 182 | 54 | 59 | 48 | 47 | 59 | 59 | 41 | 59 |
| Don H | 73 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 162 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
| Donna G #1 | 55 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 180 | 57 | 65 | 53 | 53 | 65 | 65 | 49 | 65 |
| Donna G #2 | 55 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 180 | 71 | 65 | 71 | 70 | 65 | 65 | 70 | 65 |
| Eugenio L | 39 | Duke | Florida | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 155 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Fred S | 52 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 150 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 76 | 73 |
| Garrett C | 50 | Cincinnati | Kansas | Cincinnati | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 159 | 69 | 75 | 69 | 67 | 75 | 75 | 67 | 75 |
| Gese S | 55 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 168 | 71 | 46 | 71 | 70 | 43 | 44 | 70 | 41 |
| Hsu D | 62 | Oklahoma | Kentucky | Kentucky | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 195 | 38 | 31 | 58 | 30 | 47 | 29 | 55 | 46 |
| J. M | 63 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 147 | 57 | 27 | 53 | 53 | 26 | 24 | 49 | 21 |
| Jeff F | 67 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 152 | 23 | 38 | 22 | 18 | 36 | 34 | 14 | 32 |
| Jeff W | 56 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 161 | 24 | 61 | 23 | 48 | 61 | 61 | 45 | 61 |
| Jeremy R | 60 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 150 | 45 | 54 | 37 | 36 | 54 | 54 | 28 | 54 |
| Jim P | 62 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 170 | 13 | 50 | 12 | 30 | 47 | 49 | 23 | 46 |
| JL H | 41 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 167 | 78 | 81 | 78 | 77 | 81 | 81 | 77 | 81 |
| Joe D | 25 | Notre Dame | Illinois | Notre Dame | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 163 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| John G | 66 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 165 | 53 | 22 | 46 | 46 | 19 | 21 | 39 | 14 |
| Joseph H | 61 | Oklahoma | Oregon | Oklahoma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 185 | 42 | 35 | 62 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 59 | 52 |
| KLE | 63 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 175 | 57 | 11 | 53 | 53 | 8 | 24 | 49 | 21 |
| Kurt O | 63 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 143 | 34 | 46 | 30 | 27 | 43 | 44 | 20 | 41 |
| Larry S | 53 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 158 | 34 | 71 | 30 | 60 | 71 | 71 | 59 | 71 |
| Maggie S | 63 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 126 | 57 | 27 | 53 | 53 | 26 | 24 | 49 | 21 |
| Marian H | 54 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 169 | 75 | 50 | 75 | 74 | 47 | 49 | 74 | 46 |
| Mark C | 71 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 165 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 12 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 21 |
| Matt K #1 | 70 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 146 | 16 | 31 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 29 | 10 | 26 |
| Matt K #2 | 47 | Cincinnati | Connecticut | Cincinnati | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 158 | 82 | 80 | 82 | 82 | 80 | 80 | 82 | 80 |
| Matt K #3 | 54 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 146 | 75 | 25 | 75 | 74 | 23 | 49 | 74 | 46 |
| Matt S | 72 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 130 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 20 |
| Matt T | 65 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 151 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 23 | 42 | 42 | 18 | 40 |
| Michael B | 67 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 182 | 8 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 34 | 14 | 32 |
| Mike L | 55 | Cincinnati | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 133 | 29 | 65 | 27 | 53 | 65 | 65 | 49 | 65 |
| Mike W | 68 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 154 | 45 | 19 | 37 | 36 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 5 |
| Mitch C | 63 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 118 | 12 | 46 | 11 | 27 | 43 | 44 | 20 | 41 |
| Natalie H | 59 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 116 | 64 | 38 | 64 | 63 | 36 | 34 | 63 | 32 |
| Nathan B #1 | 60 | Miami FL | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 156 | 16 | 54 | 15 | 36 | 54 | 54 | 28 | 54 |
| Nathan B #2 | 55 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 161 | 71 | 23 | 71 | 70 | 20 | 44 | 70 | 41 |
| Neil H | 50 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 178 | 45 | 75 | 37 | 67 | 75 | 75 | 67 | 75 |
| Paul D | 32 | Cincinnati | Connecticut | Cincinnati | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 130 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Payne O | 60 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 151 | 45 | 54 | 37 | 36 | 54 | 54 | 28 | 54 |
| Princess D | 36 | Cincinnati | Connecticut | Cincinnati | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 102 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 |
| Rakita J | 70 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 137 | 16 | 31 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 29 | 10 | 26 |
| Ray J | 49 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 152 | 78 | 77 | 78 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Robyn E | 67 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 168 | 8 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 34 | 14 | 32 |
| Ryan T #1 | 11 | Winthrop | NC State | Winthrop | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 |
| Ryan T #2 | 25 | Missouri | Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 121 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| Sarah O | 53 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 161 | 34 | 71 | 30 | 60 | 71 | 71 | 59 | 71 |
| Shawna W | 69 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 153 | 20 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 33 | 32 | 12 | 29 |
| Shveta A #1 | 60 | Duke | Maryland | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 155 | 63 | 37 | 63 | 62 | 35 | 33 | 62 | 31 |
| Shveta A #2 | 59 | Duke | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 168 | 64 | 15 | 64 | 63 | 10 | 34 | 63 | 32 |
| Stan C | 59 | Cincinnati | Maryland | Maryland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 159 | 64 | 15 | 64 | 63 | 10 | 34 | 63 | 32 |
| Taran T | 55 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 171 | 57 | 65 | 53 | 53 | 65 | 65 | 49 | 65 |
| Teresa L | 49 | Pittsburgh | Connecticut | Pittsburgh | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 167 | 78 | 77 | 78 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Terri R | 54 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 155 | 62 | 70 | 58 | 59 | 70 | 70 | 55 | 70 |
| Trenton T | 51 | Cincinnati | Kansas | Cincinnati | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 123 | 64 | 74 | 64 | 63 | 74 | 74 | 63 | 74 |
| Vivian J | 63 | Duke | Kansas | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 155 | 34 | 46 | 30 | 27 | 43 | 44 | 20 | 41 |
| Wally T | 57 | Duke | Connecticut | Duke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 136 | 70 | 59 | 70 | 69 | 59 | 59 | 69 | 59 |
| WH V | 56 | Duke | Kansas | Kansas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87 | 24 | 61 | 23 | 48 | 61 | 61 | 45 | 61 |
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